Brent crude opened September above $91 a barrel as U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in a month. One print put Brent at $91.27, up 3.28%, after Monday's 2.7% gain. West Texas Intermediate traded $85.60 to $86.74. Spot gold steadied near $4,444 after falling more than 3.5% over two sessions, finding support around $4,445 following a low near $4,397. Silver held about $66.67. The split is the story. Crude is pricing a shipping risk. Bullion is still paying the coupon-free tax from Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. See Monday's drop below $4,450 as oil jumped.
U.S. Central Command said forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on 30 August, calling it a limited action against units preparing to mine the strait. Tehran hit targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Iranian state media claimed a tanker struck two mines on the southern approach. Kpler data showed visible commodity vessels crossing the waterway fell to around five a day over the weekend. Qatar and Oman have not produced a deal to reopen the route. Before the war began in late February, Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global oil. President Donald Trump separately warned of possible action against Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub. That is the bid under $91 Brent.
Why $90 oil still hurts gold
Higher energy prices feed inflation. Inflation keeps September hike odds above 60% at the 15-16 September FOMC. Higher real yields raise the cost of holding gold. Tony Sycamore at IG put the $300 decline from last week's high near $4,697 down to Monday's $4,397 low as the mix of Warsh and Hormuz, not a broken uptrend. August was still a double-digit month for bullion. Support sits near $4,380 if $4,440 fails. The dollar index was little changed around 99.46. Gold futures printed near $4,493. The metal can catch a geopolitical bid later. Tuesday's tape is still a rate-path tape. See why Friday's jobs report is the next test.
What to watch into OPEC+ on 6 September
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on 6 September. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed in August to add 188,000 barrels a day for September, completing the planned return of about 1.65 million barrels a day of 2023 voluntary cuts. Extra OPEC+ barrels only help if they can physically leave the Gulf. Confirmed damage around Kharg, a second mined tanker, or a further drop in Hormuz transits would reprice both benchmarks intradaily. For crypto, $90 oil is an inflation input into the same Fed path that just put Bitcoin back under the $80,000 test. Tokenised gold products such as XAUT and PAXG will follow the bullion print, not the tanker photos.