10-Year Yield Hits 5.22% as Markets Price a 68% October Hike
Two-year yields are at 4.914%. They are up 56 basis points in September.
Economy
Coverage of global economic trends that affect your finances: interest rates, inflation, central bank policy, pension funds, mortgage rates, and cost of living changes across major economies.
Latest Economy News
10-Year Yield Near 4.93% as Markets Price a Second Warsh Hike
Funds are at 3.75% to 4.00%. The median dot is 4.1%. Trump and Xi meet Thursday.
Warsh Faces First Rate Hike at 2 p.m. With Odds Near 92%
A 25 basis point lift would take funds to 3.75% to 4.00%. The dots are the path.
August Core CPI Hits 0.3% as Warsh Faces a First Rate Hike
Headline held at 3.4%. Gasoline led. FedWatch hike odds sit near 90% for 16 September.
August PPI Hits 5.4% as ECB Lifts Deposit Rate to 2.5%
Diesel jumped 24.1%. FedWatch hike odds moved toward 74% for 16 September.
August Payrolls Add 162,000 as Friday CPI Tests Warsh's Hike Path
Unemployment held at 4.1%. FedWatch still prices a quarter-point near 58% for 16 September.
Brent Tags $99.46 After Houthi Strikes as Gold Fights $4,400
Oil is feeding the inflation half of the mandate. Friday's CPI is the last print before the FOMC.
Brent Tops $95 as Gold Slides Near $4,300 After Fresh Hormuz Strikes
Hike odds climbed toward 70% as oil fed the inflation half of the mandate. Friday's jobs report is still the first labour test.
Friday's Jobs Report Will Test Warsh's September Rate Hike Call
FedWatch prices a quarter-point near 60%. Three weak payrolls already sit on the table. Friday is the first print that can talk the Fed down.
Deutsche Bank Sticks to 50bps of Hikes After Warsh Speech
The bank still wants September and December increases. FedWatch priced a quarter-point near 60% on Monday.
Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Lifts September Hike Odds Above 55%
He said inflation still has work to do. FedWatch jumped from about 35% to as high as 61%. The two-year yield followed.
Warsh Takes Jackson Hole Podium as September Hike Odds Rise
The Fed chair's first keynote lands at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Core PCE is stuck at 3.3% and hike odds sit near one in three.
Jackson Hole 2026: What Markets Need to Hear From Powell
Friday's keynote is the last set piece before the September FOMC, with officials still split on a possible hike.
Fed, BoE, BoJ and Inflation: The Central-Bank Week Shaping World Markets
Fed holds with three dissents. BoE keeps 3.75%. BoJ hikes to 1.0%.
