Brent crude tagged $99.46 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest print since 24 July, after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare." Reuters put Brent up $1.63, or 1.68%, at $98.63 by 12:01 GMT. West Texas Intermediate reached $94.73, its highest since 8 June, before trading near $93.71. Saudi authorities said the attacks wounded 73 people and halted operations at energy sites. Hormuz tanker flows remain well below normal. The strait handled about a fifth of the world's oil before this war. Iran has said an Oman-brokered safe-passage deal is close. That deal is understood not to include the United States. Brent is about 8.5% higher than the 30 August close, when U.S. and Iranian forces traded fire for the first time in a month. See how the last Hormuz round already pushed Brent through $95.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent view to $85 and WTI to $80, a baseline that still sits below the spot tape. The same desk said Gulf supply remaining badly disrupted could send Brent toward $120. Intensified attacks on Hormuz and Red Sea shipping are the most likely trigger, the strategists wrote. Commercial OECD stock drawdowns have stayed relatively small, which is why $100 has been a ceiling rather than a home. Product markets may not wait. Refining capacity lost in the conflict is measured in millions of barrels a day. Diesel can run hot while the crude benchmark still prints a 9-handle.
Gold slipped under $4,400 as the 10-year hit 4.80%
Spot gold ended the New York session at $4,404.30 an ounce, down 0.58%, after tagging $4,395.51. An Asian spike above $4,440 did not stick. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.80%, its highest since November 2023. Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time in 30 years. Australia's 10-year is at a 2011 high. Bullion pays no coupon. That yield stack is the cost of holding it. Gold is still 22.4% higher than a year ago, when it closed near $3,638, and 16.3% below its 29 January record close of $5,318.40. Support traders still mark near $4,378, then the $4,300 area from last week's Hormuz selloff. A cooler Friday CPI would let the metal reclaim $4,425. A hot print keeps the path lower open.
Crypto is trading both files at once
Bitcoin failed $80,000 this week even as ETFs absorbed $3.8 billion over three weeks. The coin is a scarce-asset trade when oil shocks the dollar, and a duration trade when Warsh's hike odds sit near 58%. Oil feeding August CPI is the hinge. If Friday's inflation file is hot because of energy, the Fed has cover to move on 16 September and gold has a problem. If the core cools and Brent fades back through $95, both gold and Bitcoin get a bid. Neither outcome is in Tuesday's $99.46 wick. That wick is a risk premium. It is not a clearing price until tankers move.