Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,014.49 an ounce on Monday, back through $4,000 after hitting $3,975 on Friday, its lowest print since 20 July. December US gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,028.40, CNBC reported. The bounce follows a week in which bullion fell about 4%, its worst week in more than four months, as oil and hike bets did the damage. Brent crude futures were down about 2% near $114 a barrel after last week's surge to a six-month high. US crude was down about 1.6% near $101.70, according to Moneycontrol.
A softer oil tape, not a new gold trend
Giovanni Staunovo, a UBS analyst, told CNBC that some buyers treat $4,000 as a level worth stepping in at, and that lower oil was helping. He also said the upside is limited while the market still fears the Fed could hike in December and again next year, even if it holds on Wednesday. CME FedWatch priced about a 9% chance of a hike at this week's meeting and about an 80% chance of a December hike. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no yield. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are also expected to hold this week, while leaving room for December moves. US personal consumption expenditures inflation, the gauge the Fed watches most closely, is due on 29 October.
Why crypto desks are watching the barrel
Friday's oil spike is what reset the inflation story. Brent's highest close since late April, near $116.70 on some tallies, arrived with claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites that Riyadh has not confirmed, and with Qatari mediators in Tehran over the weekend. President Donald Trump said there would be no strike on Sunday, while keeping the option open. That is a pause, not a settlement. Oil is still far above the $110 first touch we reported on 17 October in Brent's run to $110. Bitcoin felt it. The coin is back near $80,200, as set out in today's market lead, because dearer energy keeps a December hike alive. A hold above $4,000 would be the first sign gold's selling is tiring. A break of Friday's $3,975 low would say it is not. Track both tapes in our commodities coverage.