Spot gold held above $4,330 an ounce on Tuesday while Brent crude settled at $99.25 a barrel, its first close under $100 since 8 September, as diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz and a restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline took the edge off the oil spike. Kitco marked spot gold near $4,336.50 early in the U.S. session, down about 0.15%, with spot silver near $65.73. Bullion later slipped under $4,300 and then rallied back above $4,330, its first daily gain in three sessions, as China's import headlines hit and crude fell. November Brent settled down $1.09, or 1.09%, at $99.25. October WTI, which expired Tuesday, settled at $94.99, down $1.19, or 1.24%. Both benchmarks were down more than $2 at the lows before President Donald Trump said a peace deal would come after the U.S. midterm elections in November, not during this week's U.N. General Assembly. He also called a three-hour meeting with Iranian representatives in New York very productive.
$99.25 cools the inflation impulse. It does not end it.
The 10-year yield still sat near 4.93%, and the dollar was firmer, which is why gold could not treat an oil drop as a clean rally. The Federal Reserve hiked to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, and the median projection still has the funds rate at 4.1% at year end. Lower crude helps that path. Diesel and refined products remain tight, and Hormuz is not back to the flows that moved before the war. Tracker comments put Saudi shipments through the strait near 2.9 million barrels a day over the last six days, up from roughly 700,000 barrels a day in August, after Aramco loaded crude inside the Gulf when strikes shut Yanbu loadings. For gold, that mix is awkward: cheaper oil reduces the rate shock, and unresolved Gulf risk keeps a bid under the metal. Bitcoin, which does not pay a coupon either, traded near $86,800 after $714.7 million of ETF inflows. The two assets are no longer the same trade. See the yield path Warsh left behind and why $4,328 was the level a week ago.