Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to approximately $6.80 per bushel in February 2026, an increase of 18% from the November 2025 low. The rally reflected a combination of Black Sea shipping disruptions, below-average winter wheat conditions in the US Southern Plains, and strong demand from North African and Middle Eastern importers.
Black Sea Supply
Russia and Ukraine together account for approximately 30% of global wheat exports. While Russian exports have continued at elevated levels despite Western sanctions on other commodities, shipping insurance costs through the Black Sea have remained high. Ukraine's grain corridor, operating without the UN-brokered deal that expired in July 2023, has experienced periodic disruptions from drone and maritime mine threats.
Russia exported a record 55 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024-25 marketing year, helping to keep global prices lower than they might otherwise have been. However, a winter drought in southern Russia's key growing regions has raised concerns about the 2026 harvest.
Global Food Security
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128 points in January 2026, up from 118 a year earlier. Wheat, rice, and vegetable oil prices have all increased, putting pressure on food budgets in import-dependent countries across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, increased its strategic reserves to a 6-month supply as a buffer against price volatility.
Climate variability continues to be a risk factor. Argentina experienced drought conditions that reduced its wheat crop by 15% in 2025, while Australia's harvest was affected by late-season frost in parts of New South Wales.
For wheat prices, visit CME Group Wheat Futures. For global food price data, see the FAO Food Price Index.