U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times the 31,000 average monthly gain over the prior year, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said hiring rose in food services and drinking places and in local government education. The information industry lost jobs. The labour force participation rate ticked up to 61.6%. Unemployed people numbered about 7.0 million. That file is the opposite of the three soft payrolls that sat on the table when Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole. It is not, by itself, a rate hike. CME FedWatch still prices a 25 basis point increase at the 15-16 September FOMC near 58%, almost unchanged from before the jobs print. The funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. President Trump has again told the Fed to cut. Warsh's own line from Wyoming still hangs over the building: inflation has to be moving back to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."
Governor Christopher Waller pushed back after the speech, arguing the three-month annualised inflation trend was encouraging. Fed funds futures briefly cut the hike odds from about 67% toward 55%. They settled near 58%. Bank of America said a hold after a hot core PCE print could raise questions about credibility and show up in longer yields. Deutsche Bank had already moved its first 25 basis point hike into September, with a second in the first quarter of 2027. Markets are less certain. One strong jobs report is a data point. It does not rewrite the oil shock. Brent tagged $99.46 on Tuesday after Houthi strikes. That is the inflation half of the mandate walking in the side door.
Friday 11 September is the last scheduled CPI before the vote
August producer prices land on 10 September. August CPI follows at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 11 September, five days before the decision. July CPI rose 0.1% on the month. The 12-month all-items reading in the last full report sat at 3.4%, still above the 2% target. Bank of America has said that if August core personal consumption expenditures prints at 0.24% month on month or higher, hike odds could sit above 50% going into the meeting. A soft CPI would do the reverse, and could pull the 58% price below 40% in a session. That is the binary Friday's jobs report was supposed to settle. It did not. CPI might.
What a hike would mean for Bitcoin and gold
Bitcoin failed to hold $80,000 this week even as U.S. spot ETFs posted a $3.8 billion three-week inflow streak. Spot gold slipped near $4,400 as the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.80%. Both are coupon-free. A quarter-point at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on 16 September, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. and a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, would raise the opportunity cost of holding them. A hold after a cool CPI would do the opposite. Until Friday, treat 58% as positioning, not a forecast. The Senate's CLARITY cloture vote is 15 September, one day earlier. Crypto gets a policy door and a funds-rate decision in the same 24 hours. Neither is priced in the jobs file.