US voters are at the polls on Tuesday, 3 November, and the first labor release of the week arrives the same morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has September's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. Eastern. EconoTimes said the Census Bureau's September factory orders report is due at the same hour, and that voters are deciding all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate. AMD is due to report after the closing bell. Monday's setup, when a December hike sat near 73% on CME FedWatch, is in yesterday's economy note.
A December quarter-point is priced near 72.5%
PricedNews said Polymarket, as of 4:11 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, priced a 25 basis point hike at the 9 December decision at 72.5%, with no change at 25.5% and a larger hike at 1.9%. That is a prediction-market price, close to Monday's FedWatch reading near 73%. The Fed's next scheduled meeting is 8 to 9 December. The policy rate is 3.75% to 4% after the 10 to 2 hold on 28 October. EconoTimes quoted JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, who said slower consumer demand, softer labor data or tighter financial conditions could lower the odds of that December increase.
Friday's payrolls are still the week's main print
The October employment report is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday, 6 November. Forecasters tracked on this desk still look for about 60,000 to 65,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.2%, after September's gain of 29,000. That preview is in Sunday's jobs note. Bitcoin traded near $76,500 as the polls opened, in today's market note. Gold near $3,921 and Brent around $105 are in the commodities update. Follow the releases on the economy desk.