The October US jobs report lands at 13:30 GMT on Friday, 6 November, one session after the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%. Anadolu Agency put Thursday's drop at 5.52% for the Nasdaq, 4.36% for the S&P 500, and 3.44% for the Dow, the worst day for the major US indexes since the April 2025 tariff selloff. Chip shares led it. FinancialMarkets said the semiconductor index lost about 12%, with AMD and Micron each down about 17%. Yesterday's preview is in the Thursday jobs note.
Hike odds slipped even as layoffs stayed low
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, matching the lowest reading since 1969, FinancialMarkets reported. Unit labor costs fell 0.7%, the first drop in more than a year. Fed officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin backed gradual rate increases. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said that unless the Middle East conflict ends, the move is unlikely to be the last.
The market's December hike bet still eased. ATFX said CME FedWatch showed about a 66% chance of a Federal Reserve hike, down from 79.9% a week earlier. CNBC had the same contract near 68%. Kalshi's December hike contract slid from about 80 cents to about 66 cents as stocks fell. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 5.3 basis points to 4.835%, and the 2-year fell 12.2 basis points to 4.459%. The dollar index rose 0.10% to 101.59.
What the payrolls print needs to show
ATFX said the consensus is 65,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, unemployment steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month after 0.1%. A hotter print would push hike odds back up and would usually weigh on bitcoin and gold. A softer one would do the opposite, unless traders treat it as a growth shock after Thursday's equity drop. Bitcoin near $75,700 is in the markets note. Gold and Brent are in the commodities update. Follow the rates desk for the payrolls reaction.