Traders priced a December Federal Reserve rate hike near 81% on Monday, 9 November, the day before October inflation data. Yahoo Finance put the probability of a quarter-point increase at about 81%, up from roughly 72% before Friday's payrolls, and had the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.87%. That is a step up from the roughly 77% marked just after the jobs report, covered in Sunday's economy note. The Fed still meets on 8 and 9 December. The target range is 3.75% to 4% after the 28 October hold.
What Tuesday's report is expected to show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, 10 November. CoinDesk, citing FactSet, said economists expect a 0.2% rise on the month. September rose 0.6%, a gasoline-driven jump that took the annual rate to 3.7%, the highest since May. September core inflation was 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. A softer monthly number would be the first clean test of whether Friday's hiring surprise still points to another hike. A firmer one would support the officials who already wanted higher rates.
Readers should not treat a missing annual figure as a new low in inflation. crypto.news noted that the 2025 funding lapse left most October 2025 CPI indexes unavailable, and that the BLS has said it will omit October 2026 annual changes where that earlier observation is missing. The usable comparison on Tuesday is the monthly change against September's 0.6% headline and 0.3% core, and against the 0.2% consensus. Producer prices follow on Friday, 13 November. September PPI rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, CoinDesk said.
Two officials already voted to hike
The case for a higher rate is not new inside the committee. On 28 October the Fed held in a 10 to 2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point increase, as set out in the October decision note. Friday's report then showed employers added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Yahoo also said revisions lifted August and September payrolls by a combined 84,000. The Crypto Times, using CME FedWatch just after the jobs release, had the December hike probability at 76.8%, against 66.9% a week earlier. Monday's 81% figure is the later market, not a revision of that earlier snapshot.
The rest of the week
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on the economic outlook on Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. ET, CoinDesk's week-ahead calendar showed. Wednesday, 11 November, is Veterans Day. US bond markets are closed on SIFMA's recommendation. Stock markets stay open. Initial jobless claims for the week ended 7 November are due Thursday, after a prior reading of 189,000. The UK publishes a first estimate of third-quarter GDP the same morning. A flash eurozone GDP reading follows on Friday. Bitcoin's drop toward $74,000, with $1.04 billion of liquidations, is in today's markets note. Gold above $4,120 and Brent near $97 are in the commodities update. Follow the rates week on the economy desk.