The US employment report for October is due Friday, 6 November, at 13:30 UK time, with consensus at 65,000 new jobs. CMC Markets said economists also expect unemployment to stay at 4.2% and average hourly earnings to slow to 2.9% from a year earlier, the softest wage print since May 2021. That is the same 65,000 payroll figure in Monday's forecast note. The dollar's drop to 101.41 is in Wednesday's economy story.
Hike pricing has already come down
CMC said markets priced four 25 basis point increases, to 5.00%, at the end of September. They now price two, taking the policy rate to 4.50%. FXStreet still had about a 79% chance of a December quarter-point hike, with 21% on a hold in the 3.75% to 4.00% range. A hot payroll or wage number would support the dollar and yields. A miss would fit the rebound already underway in gold and bitcoin.
Wednesday's stock session set the tone. A market snapshot put the Dow at 53,356, up 3.03%, the S&P 500 at 7,688.62, up 1.58%, and the Nasdaq at 25,736.51, up 1.44%. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, the highest since September 2023, which Anadolu said kept talk of later European Central Bank hikes alive. Bitcoin above $80,000 is in the markets story. Gold and Brent are in the commodities update. More on the economy desk.