The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday 14 October, two weeks before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on 28 October. Econoday's survey, cited by ETF.net, looks for a 0.6% monthly rise in headline prices after 0.4% in August and a 0.2% rise in core prices after 0.3%. Over the year, consensus stands at 3.6% on the headline after 3.4% and 2.5% on the core after 2.4%, while a TradingKey preview puts the headline nearer 3.7%. Minutes of the September meeting, released on 7 October, said most participants judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. CME FedWatch priced a 17% chance of an October rise and an 86% probability of one by December.
Banks report into the inflation print
JPMorgan Chase opens the season at about 7:00 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 13 October, with Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reporting the same morning, FXEmpire noted. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday, and BlackRock holds its call at 7:30 a.m., one hour before CPI lands. September PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims arrive on Thursday, and the Fed's Beige Book is due on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq begin the week near record highs, leaving little room for a hot surprise after the Fed's first rate rise since 2023 in September. See the Fed minutes that kept a year-end rise in play and how the 5.22% Treasury yield set up this test.