The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.93% on Tuesday, a week after Chair Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve raised the funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00% and published a median path that still points to 4.1% by year end. The 16 September decision was unanimous, 12 to 0, the first hike since 2023. The Board lifted the interest rate on reserve balances to 3.90%, effective 17 September. In the Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant sees real GDP at 2.3% this year and 2.4% next year, total PCE inflation at 3.7% this year and 2.3% next year, and unemployment steady near 4.1%. Sixteen of 18 officials anticipate at least one more quarter-point increase in 2026. Warsh again did not file his own dot. He told the press conference that inflation had been too high for too long, and that the hike was meant to support a timelier return to 2%. For the morning of that vote, see what 2 p.m. on 16 September was supposed to settle.
Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting is the next inflation input
Oil is doing some of the Fed's work. Brent settled at $99.25 on Tuesday, its first close under $100 since 8 September, as Hormuz traffic and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline improved. A lower crude price cools the energy piece of the 3.7% PCE forecast. It does not retire the median dot. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are due to start a summit in the United States on 24 September. The agenda is trade, technology, and Taiwan, with an artificial-intelligence risk hotline already floated on 20 September. A tariff truce would matter for goods prices. A breakdown would matter for the dollar and for the 10-year that gold and bitcoin both have to clear. Coupon-free assets have already shown they can rally through one hike: bitcoin is back near $86,800 after $714.7 million of ETF inflows on Tuesday. The test is whether a second hike stays in the December conversation if oil stays under $100. See Brent's $99.25 close and Tuesday's bitcoin ETF print.