Bitcoin traded near $79,800 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% to 0.5%, after a second session under the $80,000 line it lost on Monday. Yahoo Finance showed an early range of $79,470.21 to $80,202.84, with the coin near $79,556. Investing.com had it at $79,830.3 by 01:43 ET, down 0.5%. CoinGecko, as cited by The Crypto Times at 05:47 UTC, put the 24-hour band near $79,421 to $80,680. Market value was about $1.60 trillion and spot volume about $26.8 billion. That is a tighter day than last week's failed run through $84,800, covered in Monday's note near $80,200.
A Fed hold is priced. December is not settled.
The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, 28 October, at 2:00 p.m. ET. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30 p.m. This meeting has no new Summary of Economic Projections. CME FedWatch, as of 05:47 UTC, priced about a 90% chance the target stays at 3.75% to 4.00% and about a 10% chance of a hike. Thursday, 29 October, brings the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September Personal Income and Outlays report, including the PCE inflation gauge, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. A hold is the base case. The risk is how hard Warsh leans toward a December increase. CoinGecko's longer windows show why desks are already light: bitcoin was down about 3% over seven days, 5.7% over 30 days and about 30.8% over the past year.
Corporate buyers split, and $77,000 is the next shelf
Strategy bought no bitcoin from 19 to 25 October and still holds 848,517 BTC, which we cover in today's business note. Spot bitcoin ETFs did take in $110.34 million, a small offset after two outflow days, set out in the flow story. Bitfinex, in an Alpha note cited by FXStreet, said the coin is 9.3% under its 21 September high of $87,392 and has lost $81,300, now resistance. About 874,000 BTC sit between $81,000 and $82,500. The next support zone the firm named is $77,000 to $77,765. Futures open interest rose to 669,253 BTC on 25 October even as the price fell, so leverage has not been cleared. A close back above $82,500, with ETF demand behind it, would say this pause is ending. Oil's hold near $115, in our commodities update, keeps the inflation debate alive into Wednesday. Follow the tape on the markets desk.