Bitcoin traded near $80,200 on Monday afternoon after a session low around $79,340, the first clean break under $80,000 since the failed run at $85,000 last week. Yahoo Finance showed the coin changing hands at $80,208 just after noon UTC, inside a day range of $79,344 to $80,438. CoinDesk had it near $79,800 in the Asian morning, down almost 2%, before a later update put it closer to $80,400 as oil eased. The level that matters for buyers is still $82,500, the floor lost on Thursday after the $84,800 breakout failed.
Traders cut risk before Wednesday's Fed decision
The Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday, 28 October. CME FedWatch, as cited by CNBC, priced about a 9% chance of a hike at this meeting and about an 80% chance of a hike in December. The policy rate is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's increase. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at the exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk that investors were already de-risking as bitcoin fell through $80,000. "While the Fed probably won't change rates this week, we're watching how strongly the chair hints at a December hike. That's what matters for crypto," he said. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference is the event. A hold is mostly priced. A hawkish hint is not.
Selling was broad. Ether fell nearly 3% in Asia to just above $2,300 and later held near $2,320, which we cover in today's ether note. XRP lost about 3% to $1.28. Solana slid about 2% and was barely holding $100. Dogecoin, zcash, HYPE and BNB each fell 1% to 2%. TRX was the only major in the green, up less than 1%.
Asia tech and the ETF cost basis
The backdrop is the same AI trade that knocked bitcoin off $84,800. CoinDesk reported that Goldman Sachs cut its target for South Korea's Kospi by 25%, another sign that chip and AI shares are still being marked down. Bitcoin is also trading under the average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETFs, which Glassnode put near $82,313 in a CoinDesk live note on Friday. A coin below the price institutions paid is a weaker bid than one above it. Flows show the split: the funds still kept a $301.2 million gain for the week, but Thursday and Friday took out $773.5 million. Brent's pullback toward $114, covered in our commodities update, took a little heat out of the inflation scare. It did not put $82,500 back in play. Read the rest of today's market coverage before Wednesday's decision.