Bitcoin spent Tuesday around $77,000 as the Federal Reserve opened its two-day meeting and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped back to creations. Blockhead put the coin near $77,462, little changed from Monday and still well off the 3 September wick above $82,300. Other snapshots showed about $76,790, down 1.3% on the day, as Treasury yields and Brent crude stayed heavy. SoSoValue said Monday 14 September printed $160 million of net Bitcoin ETF inflows. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, ticker IBIT, took $134 million. Fidelity's FBTC added $53.3 million. ARK 21Shares ARKB offset with $42 million of redemptions. Category assets sat at $100.09 billion, about 6.3% of Bitcoin's market cap. Cumulative net inflows since the January 2024 launch were $55.32 billion. That is a bounce, not a reset of last week's tape. The four sessions from 8 to 11 September took $462.7 million out of the same wrappers, with Thursday alone at $282.7 million, the largest daily redemption since July. See how two red days into CPI already took $167 million.
$77,000 is a funds-rate shelf, not a seasonal joke
The week that just closed ended a three-week inflow run worth $3.8 billion. September is still net green. Through 11 September the category was about $307 million to the good for the month. Monday's $160 million lifts that print. It does not restore $80,000. Support desks still mark $76,000 to $77,000. A break opens $74,000 to $75,000. Resistance remains $80,000 to $82,500. Leverage is already down. Spot flows are the bid. Morgan Stanley's MSBT, which kept creating through the outflow week, now holds about $610 million. That is a holdout, not a floor for IBIT. Coupon-free assets do not like a 10-year at 5% and Brent near $107. They also do not ignore $134 million of IBIT creations the day before a Senate vote and a Fed decision. Treat Monday as the first vote after Friday's CPI, not the last.
Cloture is this afternoon. The Fed is tomorrow. Neither is priced as a bid
The Senate holds cloture on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act at 2:15 p.m. Eastern today. Sixty votes open debate. They do not pass H.R. 3633. The FOMC decision is 16 September at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. and a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. CME FedWatch and related books sit in the high 80s to low 90s for a 25 basis point lift to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first hike since 2023 and the first since spot Bitcoin ETFs existed. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now expect that quarter-point. Polymarket has been quoted near 90%. Friday's core CPI at 0.3% did the last of that work. If IBIT creates into the statement, $77,000 can still hold. If the dots show another hike this year and the wrappers redeem, $76,000 is the level that matters. For the door on Capitol Hill, see what 2:15 p.m. actually decides.