Bitcoin traded around $64,000 on July 31, 2026, essentially flat on the day despite a sharp rally in U.S. technology stocks that revived risk appetite across global equity markets. Ether settled near $1,900, and total crypto market capitalisation held steady at roughly $2.25 trillion.
Why Crypto Lagged the Equity Rally
The divergence is instructive. U.S. equities surged after Amazon and Microsoft delivered earnings that validated AI spending, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 2.78% on Thursday. Bitcoin, meanwhile, faced headwinds from three separate forces: hawkish Federal Reserve policy, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and month-end institutional rebalancing.
According to market data, the convergence of July monthly options expiry and quarter-end rebalancing created localized volatility as market makers adjusted delta-hedging positions. Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data showed net outflows or decelerating inflows, with investors pulling nearly $4 billion from U.S.-listed products over a 12-session streak.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC): Trading in a $62,500 to $65,500 range. Support at $63,000 and $62,500; resistance at $65,000 and $67,000. A sustained break above $65,500 on improving equity sentiment and falling Treasury yields would signal renewed bullish momentum.
Ethereum (ETH): Near $1,900, tracking Bitcoin with slightly higher beta. Layer-2 activity and staking yields provide fundamental support, but macro liquidity conditions remain the primary driver.
Altcoins: Solana traded near $105 with support at $100. High-beta altcoins need stronger spot demand and breadth before they can decouple from Bitcoin's range-bound behaviour. The rotation from crypto into AI equities that dominated the first half of 2026 appears to be pausing but not reversing.
The Correlation Question
Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has run in the 0.5 to 0.8 range since 2020, meaning it trades as a high-beta risk asset alongside tech stocks rather than as an uncorrelated hedge. The current lag behind equities may reflect slower information flow in 24/7 crypto markets, or it may signal that restrictive real yields are overriding the equity risk-on signal.
If the Fed delivers a September hike, crypto could face renewed pressure regardless of equity performance. If tech earnings continue to impress and yields stabilise, Bitcoin may eventually catch up to the risk-on move. For the full macro context, see our global markets roundup and central-bank analysis.