The Senate returns for business at 3:00 p.m. on Monday 14 September. The cloture motion on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, ripens at 2:15 p.m. Eastern the next day. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) filed that motion on 8 August. It is still the first floor test since the House passed the bill in July 2025. Cloture needs 60 votes in a fully seated chamber. Republicans hold 53 seats. At least seven Democrats or independents have to cross over if every Republican votes yes. Clearing that bar would limit debate on whether to take the bill up. It would not pass the Act. A second 60-vote cloture would still be required on the bill itself. Any Senate rewrite would then go back to the House before a president could sign it. Galaxy Research has put the chance of a 2026 statute near 30%. That number has not moved on a PPI print. See what the 15 September vote actually decides.
CLARITY would split federal oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, putting most spot-market supervision with the CFTC. Ethics language, stablecoin yield, anti-money-laundering reach, and how far the text should cover decentralised finance remain the fights that blocked an August vote. Negotiators have not settled how the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, S. 3755, folds into the package. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said on 20 August that the agency could take limited crypto-market steps under existing authority if the bill keeps stalling. That is a fallback, not a substitute for Congress. The Congress.gov bill page, not a Telegram summary, is the source.
The Fed votes the next day. Britain's form opens in 20 days
The FOMC decision is 16 September, one day after cloture. If the 60-vote test fails and the Fed hikes, crypto gets a policy vacuum and a higher funds rate in the same 24 hours. If cloture clears, the wrappers still wait on amendments. Treating 2:15 p.m. as a binary for Bitcoin is a category error. Treating it as the last realistic 2026 window is closer to how the whip count actually works. Britain's process is slower and more boring, which is the point. The FCA's cryptoasset application window still opens at 9:00 a.m. on 30 September and closes on 28 February 2027. The full UK regime starts on 25 October 2027. Comments on joint Bank of England and FCA systemic stablecoin rules close the same day the gateway opens. An issuer that misses the form is not saved by a Senate speech about market structure. Anyone who emails a "CLARITY refund" with a bitcoin invoice is running the second fraud.