Brent crude traded near $107 a barrel on Tuesday as West Texas Intermediate held above $102 and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline stayed offline after weekend attacks. Reuters put Brent up $1.24, or 1.18%, at $106.93 in early dealing, after a 1% gain in the prior session. WTI was $102.65. Other snapshots showed Brent at $107.70, up 2%. ING said ICE Brent tagged an intraday high just below $110 on Monday before settling at $105.68. The 1,200-kilometre East-West line, capacity about 7 million barrels a day, is the kingdom's main route around a disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Repair estimates run three to five weeks, with a pumping station the bottleneck. Houthis launched fresh attacks on Monday. Gulf talks with Iran were postponed. Yanbu tanks can cover exports for days. After that, the risk is a forced return to Hormuz. Goldman Sachs had already said badly disrupted Gulf supply could send Brent toward $120. That is still a scenario, not a clearing price. See how Thursday's $105 wick already broke the old ceiling.
Gold lost $4,300 as the 10-year held 5%
Spot gold fell through $4,300. Blockonomi put the metal at $4,271.32, down 0.6%, a five-week low, with futures off 1.0% at $4,310.90. Other prints showed $4,285.91 and $4,294.18. Silver slipped to about $62.99. Platinum was near $1,753. Palladium near $1,280. Bullion is supposed to like a war premium. It does not like a funds-rate path that is already 90% priced for a hike tomorrow. The U.S. 10-year yield cleared 5% on Monday, a threshold last seen in October 2023 on some series. The dollar posted its biggest jump in more than two months in one Bloomberg gauge. Support traders still mark the $4,261 to $4,282 area from last week's map. A cooler Fed statement would let the metal reclaim $4,330. A hawkish SEP keeps $4,200 in play. Gold pays no coupon. That yield stack is the cost of holding it.
Crypto is still trading both files at once
Bitcoin held near $77,000 as spot ETFs took in $160 million on Monday. The coin is a scarce-asset trade when oil shocks the dollar, and a duration trade when Warsh's hike odds sit near 90%. Oil feeding September CPI is the hinge. August's gasoline line already did one-third of the 0.4% headline. This week's crude is not in that file. It will be in the next one. If Wednesday's statement hikes and the dots show more, gold has a problem and Bitcoin has a discount-rate problem. If the Fed sounds done after 25 basis points and Brent fades back through $105, both get a bid. Neither outcome is in Tuesday's $107 wick. That wick is a risk premium on a pipeline. It is not a clearing price until tankers move. For the inflation print that knocked bullion off $4,400, see August core CPI at 0.3%.