Minutes of the Federal Reserve's 15 to 16 September meeting, released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on 7 October, show that all 19 officials backed the quarter-point rise to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range, and that most saw another increase as likely appropriate before year-end. The document does not lock in the 27 to 28 October decision. Accounts of the minutes said inflation risks were described as tilted higher and that several officials regarded policy as only mildly restrictive. The September move was the first hike since 2023, and it reversed the December 2025 cut. The effective federal funds rate on the Fed's H.15 release dated 7 October was still 3.88%.
A weak jobs print did not erase the year-end bias
September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%, a soft print that had markets leaning toward a pause. Reuters pricing cited on Thursday put the chance of an October hike near 18%, with a December rise priced as much more likely. Vantage Markets said markets priced about an 80% chance of a hike by December. Kitco said initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week ended 3 October, down 2,000 from the prior week's revised level, while continuing claims rose to 1.716 million in the week ended 26 September. The 10-year yield was trading near 5.3% on Thursday. The same H.15 table showed the 10-year at 5.24% on 1 October, before this week's backup. Equities had closed at records on 6 October, with the S&P 500 at 7,818.93 and the Nasdaq Composite at 27,599.79, then retreated as oil and yields rose. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on the day the minutes came out. Daily fund-flow tables do not show whether those redemptions were placed before or after 2:00 p.m. What the minutes do change is the easy pause story that followed the payrolls report. CPI is scheduled for 14 October. The next policy statement is due on 28 October. See bitcoin's $484.9 million outflow, Brent near $104.75, and Sunday's payrolls piece.