The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 98.3 in February 2026, the lowest reading in 18 months and below the 100 threshold that typically marks the dividing line between optimism and pessimism. The University of Michigan's sentiment index echoed the decline, with inflation expectations rising to 4.3% for the year ahead. Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 68% of US GDP, grew at just 1.2% annualised in Q4 2025, a sharp deceleration from the 3.1% pace in Q3.
Credit Card Debt Record
Total US credit card balances have reached $1.17 trillion according to the New York Federal Reserve, a record. Credit card delinquency rates (30+ days past due) have risen to 3.1%, the highest since 2012. Average credit card interest rates stand at 22.8%, reflecting the Fed's higher rate environment. Personal savings rate has fallen to approximately 3.7%, well below the pre-pandemic average of 7-8%.
Labour Market Cooling
While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, the pace of job creation has slowed. Monthly nonfarm payrolls averaged approximately 150,000 in Q1 2026, down from 250,000 in early 2025. Job openings as measured by JOLTS have fallen to 7.7 million from a peak of 12.2 million in 2022, indicating a normalising labour market. Quits rates, often seen as a measure of worker confidence, have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Impact on Markets
The consumer spending weakness has led to multiple profit warnings from retail companies. Target, Dollar General, and several restaurant chains have reported slower traffic and trading-down behaviour, with consumers shifting from brands to private label products. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector has underperformed the broader index by approximately 8% year-to-date.
For consumer confidence data, visit The Conference Board. For Federal Reserve consumer credit data, see NY Fed Household Debt.