The Federal Open Market Committee publishes its statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern today, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. and a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, the first rate decision of his tenure that markets have already priced as a hike. CME FedWatch and related books sit near 92% for a 25 basis point lift, taking the funds rate from 3.50% to 3.75% into 3.75% to 4.00%. It would be the first increase since July 2023, the first under Warsh, and the first since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now expect that quarter-point. Reuters put the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.01% after it tagged 5.04% on Tuesday, a threshold last seen in 2007 on some prints. The Fed's calendar, not a Telegram summary, is the source for the clock. Friday's core CPI at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus did the last of that work. Headline held at 3.4%. Gasoline led. See how that tenth already moved odds into the high 80s.
Warsh took the chair in May after President Donald Trump picked him with an expectation of lower rates. Jackson Hole's line still hangs over the building: inflation has to be moving back to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed." Trump has said the country should be paying 1% or 0.5%, not 4%. Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both argued against a hike into an energy shock. The 10-year does not care about those quotes. Oil is still feeding the next CPI. Brent eased toward $108 after a U.S. inventory build, but Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is still offline. That is not in August's gasoline line. It is in September's. A hold after this file would be the surprise. A hike with a hawkish SEP would not.
The statement is 25 basis points. The dots are the path
A hike the market has already priced is not the whole event. The median dot will show whether this is a one-off or the start of a path into December and March. Coupon-free assets, Bitcoin and gold included, will trade that language more than the funds rate. Bitcoin already slipped toward $75,700 after Tuesday's $450.4 million ETF outflow. Spot gold rebounded near $4,328 as yields eased a few basis points. Until 2:00 p.m., treat 92% as positioning, not a forecast. For the coin that has to live with that path, see why $450 million of redemptions arrived before the statement. For the metal that bounced on a 10-year pullback, see gold's 0.8% rebound above $4,300.