Bitcoin traded between roughly $68,400 and $70,200 on August 25 and 26, 2026, holding nearly all of last week's surge from the $64,100 area. Volume has thinned and intraday swings have narrowed, a classic pattern when crypto waits on a macro catalyst. That catalyst arrives on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
The consolidation follows the rally detailed in our August 20 market report, when U.S. Treasury buybacks, a weaker dollar, and a broad risk-on bounce pulled Bitcoin back toward $70,000. Spot demand has stayed firm since then, with U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows extending their turnaround into a second week.
Positioning Into the Speech
Derivatives desks describe positioning as balanced rather than euphoric. Funding rates have cooled from the 20-month highs hit during last week's $1.4 billion liquidation wave, and options markets show demand for both upside calls above $72,000 and protective puts near $66,000. That two-sided hedging, covered in our sentiment briefing, suggests traders respect how quickly a Powell surprise could move prices in either direction.
Key levels: Support sits at $68,000, then the $67,000 zone that marked the top of the prior range. Below that, $64,000 to $65,000 remains the line the bulls cannot afford to lose. Resistance is unchanged at $70,000 first, then $72,000.
What a Hawkish or Dovish Powell Would Mean
FOMC minutes released earlier this month showed officials openly debating whether the next rate move could be a hike, and oil-linked inflation risk has not faded. A Powell speech that leans into that debate would likely firm the dollar and test Bitcoin's $68,000 support. A speech that instead emphasises cooling labour data would weaken the dollar further and could hand crypto the breakout it has been building toward since last week.
For the macro backdrop, see our Jackson Hole preview. For the July baseline this recovery reversed, see Bitcoin's July lag behind equities.